2009 Fantasy Football Blog

[gelo24]

I want to start a blog on here for the rest of the season to help fellow RXers in fantasy football. I've been very successful in fantasy sports over the last 15 years and would like to share my knowledge and ideas with everyone. I will make a few entries each week such as waiver wire pickup help, advice on players to start or sit on a given week, and anything else that comes to mind. If anyone has any questions or would like help on their lineup, just post your question and I will do my best to help. I will not always be right, but I will always give my two cents to help everyone I can. Alright, so my first order of business would be to give some waiver wire insight for Week 2.

The following players should be on every team in every league and for some reason they aren't:

Running Backs
1. Cadillac Williams (85% Yahoo Ownership)-Unless your league has 10 teams and you only start one RB, Carnell should be on a team in every single league. He definitely looks 100% healthy with the way he ran against a respectable Dallas defense. I know he only had 13 carries, but Tampa somewhat abandoned the run when they fell behind in the 2nd half. I would expect another good effort this week against the Bills in what should be a close game.

2. Mike Bell (66% Yahoo Ownership)-I'm a huge Denver Broncos fan and was sad to see Bell never really get a chance under Shanahan after his rookie year. Well now he is getting his chance with the Saints and as long as Pierre Thomas is out or limited, I would have Bell in my lineup in a deeper league. Bell had 28 carries last week and I expect this number to remain in the 15+ range as long as Thomas is out.

3. Ahmad Bradshaw (76% Yahoo Ownership)-The fantasy team that I care about the most features Brandon Jacobs as my 2nd RB. I am very nervous about this because of how Bradshaw looked last week. Jacobs isn't a big pass catcher so he will likely be on the sideline on passing downs. I can definitely see Bradshaw with over 1200 yards from scrimmage and 8 TDs after the year is said and done. Pick him up now and thank me later.

Other guys to watch:
1. Michael Bush (44% Yahoo Ownership)-The Raiders have to run the ball if they want to stay in games and flanked McFadden out on several occasions to give a different look. This means opportunities for Bush.

2. Anyone who is in the Steelers backfield-I don't think Mike Tomlin even knows who can run the ball effectively on this team. I really think all the RBs on this roster are trash and would watch and see if the Steelers make a move to acquire an RB or activate preseason standout Isaac Redman from the practice squad and give him a chance. Stay tuned.

3. Garrett Wolfe (1% Yahoo Ownership)-I remember watching San Diego play Denver the last few years and was always amazed at how scary Darren Sproles looked in limited chances. This guy has the same look and burst as Sproles and will produce if given a chance.

Wide Receivers
1. Earl Bennett (58% Yahoo Ownership)-I just picked Bennett up in a league while I was writing this. There are two things that I know for sure. One is that Jay Cutler will throw the ball at least 25 times every single game this year and two is that Earl Bennett will lead the Bears in receptions. 13 balls were thrown his way in week 1. Trust me on this one and pick him up.

2. Laurent Robinson (16% Yahoo Ownership)-Well the Rams suck again this year. I know I'm shocked too. No I'm not, they are terrible. They were awful last year and didn't substantially improve in the offseason. So what does this mean? Well when teams are behind, they have to throw and Robinson looks like a candidate to produce 60-70 catches 800 yards and 5 TDs.

3. Davone Bess (18% Yahoo Ownership)-Quick what team is Bess on? Well you should know that he is a member of the Miami Dolphins. I loved to watch Bess catch passes from Colt Brennan back at Hawaii and it seems he has become a favorite target of Chad Pennington. He'd be my favorite target too if he caught all 7 passes that I threw in his direction. Get Bess and watch him pay dividends this Monday night to help seal your victory.

Others to watch:
1. Andre Caldwell (4% Yahoo Ownership)-Everyone is high on Caldwell's college teammate Louis Murphy because he got behind San Diego's defense for a TD. I like Caldwell better, mostly because I hate Laveranues Coles. Carson Palmer misses TJ Houshmandzadeh who was a great possession receiver and loved to go across the middle. I think Caldwell can surprise a lot of people this season and help your team along the way.

2. Kenny Britt (23% Yahoo Ownership)-The Titans love their #1 pick from this year's draft and I'm starting to warm up to him too. The kid is a playmaker and someone needs to catch the ball on this team. Keep your eye on him in smaller leagues or pick him up in deeper ones.

3. Jerheme Urban (2% Yahoo Ownership)-Arizona has no runnning game and also has some receivers banged up. Boldin didn't look like himself last week and Breaston was inactive. If you believe in the Madden Curse, which already claimed Troy Polamalu, then you should have Urban on your team already. I'll wait and see.

I hope you enjoyed my first entry. I'll probably post a start and sit entry by Saturday night. If you have any questions, please post them. I'm here to help. Also, please get Michael Crabtree off of every single team that you own. The talent is definitely there, but there will be no rewards this year.

 

[FairWarning]

Garrett Wolfe will be no factor in Chicago barring an injury to Forte. The guy I would look at would be Mel Moore from Pitt. He runs hard and could be stealing carries away from Willie Parker. I'm sure Moore is available in most leagues.

Speaking of Earl Bennett, look at Johnny Knox of the Bears too. The kid has game-breaking speed, and is a deep threat.

 

[gelo24]

Matt Forte participated in nearly 84% of offensive plays last year which OC Ron Turner really wants to come way down.

I feel like Mewelde Moore had his chances last year and wasn't very impressive.

I think Knox has some raw talent, but he will not be a reliable fantasy option this year.

 

[Michelangelo]

Nice writeup Gelo. Looking forward to your contribution and Sat night update.

 

[FairWarning]

Matt Forte participated in nearly 84% of offensive plays last year which OC Ron Turner really wants to come way down.

I feel like Mewelde Moore had his chances last year and wasn't very impressive.

I think Knox has some raw talent, but he will not be a reliable fantasy option this year.

I don't play in them, but Knox has value in Dynasty and Keeper leagues.

Very nice work on the blog.

 

[gelo24]

I always would beat myself up over who to start and sit on a weekly basis and have realized that it is definitely not an exact science. The biggest thing that I feel is important is to monitor injury situations. If I draft someone in the first 3 or 4 rounds, I am not going to bench them simply because they have a bad matchup in Week 2 or didn't perform well in Week 1. In other words, don't sit Chris Johnson or Steve Slaton this week for someone that I really like such as Darren McFadden. You are also the boss of your fantasy team so it is ulitmately your job to decide who is ready for work and who could use a day off so here are my feelings on Week #2.

Ready for Work
The following players are primed and ready for a big fantasy week in my opinion.
Quarterback
1. Trent Edwards-I really like the way that Edwards played on the road against the Patriots. Now he gets to come home to Buffalo and play a Tampa defense who gave up a career-high yardage total to Tony Romo last week at home. I think Edwards will put up 240 yards and 3 TDs.

2. Philip Rivers-We all know that LT has been ruled out this week and I'm sure the Chargers will be putting the game on their $92 million man. While the Chiefs are not the most explosive team in NFL history, they only gained 29 yards on the ground vs. the Ravens stingy defense. However, Brodie Croyle who has never been mistaken for Joe Montana posted a passer rating of 116 with 2 TDs. I think Rivers will go over 300 yards with 2 TDs.

Running Back
1. Darren McFadden-I love this matchup as well as what I saw from Run DMC last week. He struggled staying healthy in his first NFL season and only eclipsed 100 yards once all of last season. That game was played in KC and the rookie carried the ball 21 times for 164 yards and a score. I can see 120 total yards with 2 TDs against the Chiefs bad defense.

2. Jamal Lewis-I think it's a no-brainer to start Clinton Portis against the Rams. I would endorse any player who is a top-tier fantasy player whenever they face the Rams or Lions this year. As for Jamal Lewis, I stated in my first post that I am a huge Denver fan, but Denver's defense is still susceptible to a power running game. Josh McDaniels brought the Patriots bend but don't break philosophy and Carson Palmer even commented that he couldn't get the ball down the field last week based on Denver's defensive game plan. Denver will look to take away the big play and Eric Mangini will lean heavily on Lewis to take the pressure of Brady Quinn. I can see 100 total yards and a score for Jamal this week.

Wide Receiver
1. Bernard Berrian-Guess who is playing the Lions this week. That's correct the Vikings are. While I absolutely cannot stand Brett Favre and think that his skills have deteriorated, I think that I could throw for a touchdown or two against Detroit. Berrian could gain over 100 yards and take one to the house.

2. Eddie Royal-This preseason Royal was Kyle Orton's favorite target while Brandon Marshall was suspended. The offense looked very out of sync in the beginning of the game, but should see a lot more production against the Browns defense in their home opener. Royal is especially important in PPR leagues and could produce 8 catches 100 yards and a score.

I will post the guys who I feel need a "day off" later tonight.

 

[gelo24]

Just finished watching my favorite athlete "Money" May take care of Juan Manual Marquez with ease. Marquez looked like he should have stayed home in Mexico tonight and I think the following guys need to stay on your bench tomorrow.

Give him the "day off."
Quarterback
1. Matt Ryan-I really like Ryan and feel that he is a very good QB, especially with the addition of Tony Gonzalez at TE. The problem that I have with him this week is his matchup against a stingy Carolina defense. Even though Carolina was trounced by Philadelphia, they only surrendered 82 passing yards to the Eagles. Also, in Ryan's two starts vs. the Panthers in 2008 he recorded a big fat ZERO TDs. Leave Ryan on the bench this week.

2. Matt Hasselbeck-I really have a thing against quarterbacks named Matt this week. I probably wouldn't start Matt Schaub either, but that's besides the point. A lot has been made of Hasselbeck's new weapons such as TJ Houshmandzadeh and the emergence of John Carlson, but I'm not buying this week. SF head coach Mike Singletary was one of the greatest LBs of all-time and has instilled his defensive knowledge on his new team. If last week is any indication, it is working since they went on the road and kept the reigning NFC champs in check. Let this Matt have the day off this Sunday as well.

Running Backs
1. Ryan Grant-I own Grant in a Yahoo league that rewards points for return yardage and he will be on my bench tomorrow (I will be starting Leon Washington and Fred Jackson). Everyone is expecting Green Bay to flatten Cincy at home this week, but I don't see Grant having a big game. He doesn't really catch the ball and the Bengals defense is much improved with former USC LBs Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga leading the way. If you have a stronger option like me, leave Grant on the bench.

2. Darren Sproles-I really like the change of pace that Sproles brings to the Chargers backfield, but I don't like when he is the featured back. To make matters worse, he is facing a defense that yielded 4 rushing TDs all of last season. He may catch a few balls out of the backfield, but I would leave him on the bench as I believe the Bolts will lean heavily on Philip Rivers this week.

Wide Receiver
1. DeSean Jackson-I highly doubt Donovan McNabb will play this week. No matter who starts at QB I think that the Eagles will try to control the clock with their running game as well as an intermediate passing game. Jackson has been touted to have a big year, but he only scored 2 receiving TDs last year and I feel that he should stay reserved in all leagues that don't award points for return yards this week.

2. Anquan Boldin-Boldin is another player that I own and he will be on my bench with Devin Hester as his replacement. I know that he is questionable and I feel that even if he does play, he will not be near 100% with his hamstring injury. A receiver with a leg injury is like a pitcher with a shoulder problem. He looked awful coming off of the line last week and also wasn't a threat to amass any yards after the catch where he is most dangerous. If he has a great week, I would be pleasantly surprised because right now I'm scared that he might deal with this injury all year long.

I hope that my suggestions help some of you and would suggest checking all of the inactives tomorrow so that you are never stuck with an injured player in your lineup. Good luck this week and I'll be back with some comments on this weekend very soon.

 

[gelo24]

I don't feel too bad about my recommendations from last week. Two big plays from Sproles and Jackson gave them big days and I was a little too aggressive with the running backs and wide receivers that I recommended. This week I want to start with 12 things that I learned this week that I feel can help everyone.

1. Darrelle Revis is the new "shutdown" corner in the NFL. Part of this has to do with his talent and the other part is the Jets attacking defense. He has held Andre Johnson and Randy Moss to a combined 8 catches and 59 yards in two full games. They are two of the premier receivers in the league and I would be hesitant to use a #1 WR against Revis if I have another option.

2. I didn't feel that Johnny Knox would be relevant this year, but he made me eat my words. If he is available in your league, pick him up.

3. Until New England can find a running game, Tom Brady will struggle. I know that Wes Welker was sorely missed, but New England has to commit to the run to open up the passing game.

4. Oakland WRs should never be inserted into a starting lineup. A lot of people were high on Louis Murphy, but JaMarcus Russell is way too inconsistent to ever have faith in their passing game.

5. Dallas WRs will also be difficult to use on a consistent basis. The Dallas offense has to rely on their running game with their big offensive line and it is also no secret that Jason Witten is Romo's favorite target.

6. I have said this before and I will say it again-Please cut Michael Crabtree in all leagues. Even if he does sign, which looks very unlikely, he will need to get in game shape and learn the playbook. If he does both of those, he will still be on a run-first team with Shaun Hill as a QB.

7. If you own Brian Westbrook, please try to get LeSean McCoy. Westbrook will be questionable every week and will miss at least 4 games this year. I actually think this may be the year that his injuries finally catch up to him.

8. Don't sit your top picks because they have struggled out of the gate. Steve Slaton has faced two tough run defenses and should break out against the Jags this week. Brandon Jacobs should also find the end zone against a weak Tampa defense.

9. Philip Rivers will be the number 2 fantasy QB this year behind Drew Brees. I really believe that San Diego will struggle to run the ball even if LT returns because of the injuries to their offensive line. Rivers is now the face of that franchise and has some huge weapons that will also produce big numbers.

10. Cedric Benson will be a top 10 fantasy running back this year. The Bengals are committed to the run and Benson is getting the touches. He definitely looks like the guy who was drafted #4 overall and could produce 1,500 yards with double digit TDs.

11. If you own a Cleveland Brown not named Braylon Edwards, please leave him on your bench. The Browns are absolutely pathetic and look lost on offense.

12. I still like Ray Rice, but Willis McGahee should be owned in all leagues. He is getting the goalline carries and is running with a purpose every time he touches the ball.

I will post a Buy Low and Sell High column in the next two days. I really believe that you must be patient with players that have proven track records provided they are not dealing with injuries. If you have any questions or comments, please post them.

 

[FairWarning]

After watching the Jets the first couple of games, I would have a very hard starting anyone that is playing the Jets. 100% correct on the Revis writeup. He is the best DB in the NFL. He frustrated Moss the whole day.

 

[gelo24]

Time to Go Shopping

A lot of fantasy owners are in panic mode if they are sitting at 0-2 in their leagues. Many of these teams will have some of the same players on them. Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, and Tom Brady have not produced like they were supposed to when you made them your top pick. My suggestion on these players is not to panic. Even if you do try to trade these players, you will not receive anything near what they are truly worth because of their early season struggles. The main thing that you need to focus on when making early-season trade decisions is value. Many times owners are too worried about need because they may have someone injured or underperforming. Unless you have remarkable depth at another position, you should use the waiver wire to fill these needs instead of sacrificing another strength. You also want to look to exploit owners who are not as patient as you. With that in mind, I would definitely target the following players as Buy Low candidates.

Steve Slaton-Everyone is way down on Slaton. I have read that he looks 10 pounds overweight and isn't as quick as last year. This just seems like panic to me because his first two matchups were against tough run defenses. The big thing I like about Slaton is that he is an every-down back and can also catch the ball out of the backfield. If someone in your league wants to trade him, swoop in and grab Mr. Slaton.

Wes Welker-This would mainly be in a PPR league, but many owners may panic that Welker is hurt and the Patriots are struggling offensively. Don't get me wrong, Welker may miss this week too, but he will produce when he gets back on the field which should be very shortly. Welker will still catch 80 or 90 balls and likely go over 1,000 yards this year. Brady loves him and so do I.

Antonio Gates-I think some people might be in panic mode if they are 0-2 and own Gates. If they are weak at another position, they may be willing to part with Gates and you should definitely grab him. I have talked in other entries that the Bolts are now led by Phil Rivers and Gates will be a huge benificiary as the season progresses. I know that he has no TDs yet, but he is healthy and could easily finish the year as the top TE in all leagues.

On the other hand, there are also some guys who are great bait to improve your team. I feel that these players will not produce the way that many people expect them to this season.

Marion Barber-I know that Barber's quad injury has not kept him from practicing this week and it looks like he could be available this Monday vs. the Panthers, but put yourself in Barber's shoes for a second. I know that Barber can feel Felix Jones breathing down his neck and the Cowboys also have Tashard Choice who proved he could carry the load when everyone went down last season. Barber is clearly rushing back from this injury and two things can happen here. He will either re-aggravate the injury or he will struggle with it and his production will drop. Barber couldn't stay healthy last year and looks like he will not make it through 2009 either.

Brian Westbrook-Westbrook has been one of the most consistent fantasy RBs over the last three years. He catches the ball out of the backfield and has always played through injuries year in and year out. But something happened to Westbrook on September 2nd this year, he turned 30. I know that 30 is the new 20, but not when you are an NFL RB. Everyone was also very impressed with LeSean McCoy throughout the preseason and there was a reason that he was drafted in the second round this year. Get what you can for Westbrook now because I think he is over the hill in fantasy football.

Dallas Clark-Did you see the numbers that Clark put up last Monday night against the Dolphins? I'm sure everyone else in your league did too. The Colts also have two young, inexperienced receivers so Clark will keep putting these numbers up right? I really don't think so. Reggie Wayne is still Peyton Manning's go-to-guy and the Colts are really high on Pierre Garcon. They also will look to run the ball with Joseph Addai and Donald Brown. Clark will get his looks too, but I wouldn't expect the production that you got from him in Week 2. My point here is that if someone is offering you an every-down RB like Matt Forte or Steve Slaton or a number 1 receiver for Clark I would jump at the deal.

I will post some projections again by Saturday night and hope that you take my advice and remain patient with your underperformers because it will pay off in the long run.

 

[gelo24]

Lots of rain on the east coast could have a huge factor on this week's NFL games. Light rain could actually benefit passing games because it gives receivers an advantage because they know where they are going and it is difficult for the defense to plant and react. However, a driving downpour similar to a monsoon keeps the ball on the ground for both teams. Definitely keep this in mind before setting your lineups this week. As the boss of your fantasy team, you need to make sure the following players are ready for work tomorrow.

Quarterback

1. Matt Schaub-It is no secret that Schaub has one of the best receivers in the NFL in Andre Johnson, but he is not the only weapon that he has. TE Owen Daniels and WR Jacoby Jones also made a number of big catches last week in their win at Tennessee. Now Schaub faces a Jaguars defense that Kurt Warner was 24-26 against last week with 2 TDs. I expect 300 yards and 3 TDs from Schaub this week.

2. Jason Campbell-I know that it would be easy for me to tell you to start someone like Aaron Rodgers against St. Louis or Joe Flacco vs. the Browns, but I feel like they are probably owned by someone in every league. If you own Donovan McNabb or Matt Hasselbeck, you may have to pick someone off waivers to start and I believe Campbell is your guy. Their offense struggled mightily against the Rams last week, but Jim Zorn's play-calling was super conservative. He took a lot of criticism for it especially from Washington legend Sonny Jurgensen who questioned Zorn for running a halfback pass at the goalline instead of putting the ball in Campbell's hand. I really feel like Zorn is already on the hot seat and a loss to Detroit could have him looking for work. If you couple that with Detroit's awful pass defense I believe Campbell with throw for 250 yards and 3 TDs.

Running Backs

1. Tim Hightower-Just as most of you probably watched the Monday night game, I'm sure Ken Whisenhunt and his staff did too. In that game, Miami absolutely dominated the line of scrimmage and time of possession, but still came out on the losing end. However, the game plan was perfect and I'm sure it will be examined by the Cards coaching staff this week. Think about it like this-Arizona has an extreme advantage playing in the middle of the desert and many opponents get worn down in the 2nd half when they come to town. Since Indy's D got pounded last week and is also on a short week, I expect more of the same tomorrow night. I expect Hightower to get 25 touches and have 125 yards and 2 scores.

2. Knowshon Moreno-Denver's biggest offensive strength is their offensive line and they are in love with their #1 draft pick Moreno. I expect the gameplan to revolve around him grinding it out on the ground with 30 touches for 150 yards and a score.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

1. Chris Cooley-If Campbell is going to have a big game, I expect Cooley will as well. As I said before, Detroit's pass defense is terrible. I expect Cooley to have 8 catches 100 yards and a TD.

2. Chad Ochocinco-I really hate to call him that because he will always be Chad Johnson to me. No matter what you like to call him, I expect him to have a huge game tomorrow against his divison rival Pittsburgh Steelers. I always liked Chad since he came into the NFL and even had a greater love for him after watching him on Hard Knocks this year. He just seems like a really cool guy and I expect that you will fall in love with him if he is on your team tomorrow. I expect 150 yards and 2 TDs from the former Mr. Johnson tomorrow.

I will post the players that I feel should call in sick tomorrow in a little while.

 

[lax_gunman]

Donovan McNabb or Matt Hasselbeck
That's funny cuz I missed one of my drafts and ended up owning both of them. And I totally agree with you on Campbell. Just waiting for gametime decisions to c if I need to add Campbell, cuz I really like my bench.
Anyway, good to c some action in the fantasy forum. I've been on post review and been busy but hopefully we can keep this forum busy. GL

 

[gelo24]

I'm watching two games in the rain right now and can really see how it is affecting the teams involved. The Philly, Baltimore, and Jets games all look like they will be played in the rain. There don't really seem to be a lot of quality QB or WR options in those games, but the Buffalo game may also be played in the rain. No matter what is falling out of the sky in Buffalo I would not sit Drew Brees this week so please don't do it. However, I believe the following players should be given the day off from your fantasy lineup tomorrow.

Quarterback

1. Brett Favre-I will admit that I cannot stand Favre. The guy had a great career, but after losing to the Giants in the NFC title game two years ago he should have called it a career. Oh wait, he did and then he did again after last season, but somehow he is playing for the Vikings tomorrow. I advised against Matt Hasselbeck last week and Patrick Willis ended his day before halftime and has likely put him out this week as well. Favre is not mobile anymore and the Niners will send pressure at him all day. Leave him at home where he belongs tomorrow.

2. Kurt Warner-This advice must only be taken if you have another quality option besides Warner. I own Warner in a league and am sitting him in favor of Matt Schaub. I really feel that Arizona's game plan will be to run the ball against Indy's soft run D. The Colts also only gave up 6 passing TDs last year and 0 so far this year. Give Warner tomorrow off, but only if you can afford to do so.

Running Backs

1. Thomas Jones-Tennessee's defense has been susceptible against the pass, but has also been nasty against the run. If you compound that with the emergence of Leon Washington, I would tell Jones to get comfortable on my fantasy bench this week.

2. Clinton Portis-I know that it is difficult to sit Portis against the lowly Detroit Lions defense, but Portis is not coming into this game healthy. It was revealed this week that Portis is dealing with bone spurs in both of his ankles and would not be practicing. He is also getting up there in age and I expect that Ladell Betts to steal away some of his touches due to the injury.

Wide Receiver

1. Dwayne Bowe-There are many factors against Bowe this week. First, you have the weather since it is supposed to rain in Philly all weekend. Second, he is nursing a hamstring injury. And third, he is on the Chiefs. I expect Todd Haley to keep the ball on the ground with Larry Johnson to stay in the ballgame and Bowe will be lucky to play at all this week.

2. Roy Williams-If you take away that long touchdown that Williams had against Tampa in Week 1, what has he really done? 3 catches for 38 yards in two games. That is not a number 1 receiver and anyone who has a brain realizes that Jason Witten is their go-to-guy. Carolina has also been tough against the pass so please leave Roy at home if you want to win this week.

I hope you all enjoyed my analysis this week and good luck to everyone in their games this week.

 

[gelo24]

I really was pleased with the way that my projections worked out last weekend. I nailed all of the guys I said to sit except for Favre pulling a rabbit out of his old ass. Both of the quarterbacks that I recommended also had huge games so I hope some of you took my advice there. On to week 4 and the first of many bye weeks. There are a number of good fantasy players on bye this week and you may have to reach a little bit to fill your starting lineup, but please don't ever start a player on a bye. One thing I have noticed in my league that doesn't charge for pickups is some of the players who are being dropped. Someone in my league dropped Larry Johnson and LeSean McCoy in that league. I really suggest checking to see what players have been dropped in your league because you can really benefit from another owner's lack of patience or smarts. Another thing that kills me is when owners have their bench filled with extra QBs, TEs, and kickers. If you are in a free league, you should have 1 QB at most on your bench and zero TEs or Ks on your bench. Unless you own a top TE and he is on a bye, do not hold on to someone like Kevin Boss on your bench when you can have a backup RB or a WR that has much more upside on your bench. With the bye week in mind, here are some players that could possibly fill in for you this week.

Quarterback
Shaun Hill (38% Yahoo ownership) So I'm sure you realize that Frank Gore is out this week and everyone is telling you to go and get Glen Coffee. Well I'm pretty sure that he is already owned in mostly every league now. I don't really see Coffee having a huge week because I feel that the Niners will put the game in Hill's hands and he will respond with a big day against the lowly Rams. I fully expect Hill to have 250 yards and 3 TDs this Sunday.

Running Back
Jerome Harrison (27% Owned in Yahoo) I fully understand that the Browns suck, but if you are in a PPR league and need a starting RB this week why not go with Harrison? He had 85 total yards and 5 receptions against the Ravens D last week on 21 touches and could possibly be much more successful against Cincy this weekend. I wouldn't be shocked at 120 total yards and a TD.

Michael Bush (46% Yahoo Ownership) Another back who could give your team a shot in the arm is this Raiders backup who might see an increased workload this week. Darren McFadden fumbled 3 times last week, losing one and will probably pay for his lack of ball security with a decrease in PT. When Bush gets his touches, he makes the most and the Texans have the worst rush D in the league, yielding 205 yards a game.

Wide Receiver
Nate Washington (44% Yahoo Ownership) Before he missed Week 1 vs his former team Pittsburgh, Washington was tabbed by many experts to have a breakout season. I'm not sure why he isn't owned in more leagues because he has caught a TD each of the last two weeks and looks to be Kerry Collins' favorite target. If you need a receiver, he is a nice option who could have 6 catches for 80 yards and a score.

I will be back this Saturday to give my weekly projections on who should be in your lineup and who should be left on your bench. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to post them.

 

[gelo24]

I'm sorry that I didn't get to post at all last Saturday. I've been very busy with work and didn't get a chance last weekend. I hope some people listened to my pickup suggestions last week as all of them look like they will be making a considerable contribution over the next few weeks. In the spirit of the MLB playoffs, I would like to devote this post to what your goal as a fantasy owner needs to be. I am not an avid reader, but a few years ago I picked up the book "Moneyball" and couldn't put it down. If anyone is unfamiliar with it, I would definitely recommed it even if you aren't a huge baseball fan. It is the story of Oakland A's general manager Billy Beane and how he has constructed his small market franchise into competing against the big boys. The one thing that sticks out to me and correlates to fantasy football is that his goal was for his team to make the playoffs every year. The reason he said this was because he felt that the MLB playoffs, just like fantasy football playoffs, were in his opinion a crapshoot. Whatever team gets hot or healthy at the right time, can go on a huge run and win the whole thing. In all of my leagues, that is what I am always trying to do. I don't consider success as winning the title because anything can happen in a one-game playoff. At this point in the season, it doesn't matter if you are 1-3 or 0-4, the playoffs are still within your reach. So what can you do to turn things around?

1. Improve the depth on your team-You can never have too many good players on your team. Football is a violent game and injuries can and will happen. You need to be prepared in case this happens as well as for bye weeks. In one of my leagues, I am 4-0 and feel pretty good about my team, but I decided to drop my backup TE Martellus Bennett for Jermichael Finley. There are also a lot of owners who will drop someone because they need a bye week fill-in. Just keep your eye on your league's waiver wire as often as possible.

2. Trade Wisely-If your season isn't going well, don't make a trade just to shake up your team. I have had a lot of trade offers come to me, but usually when someone offers you a trade it isn't to help you. If you feel that a trade improves your depth or you are giving up two players who don't always start for you and getting one back who will make a difference then do it. Just be happy about your decision before you make it.

3. Leave the Slackers Behind-In one of my leagues, I own LaDainian Tomlinson. I'm not going to drop him, but I'm not going to play him next week against Denver just because I drafted him in the 2nd round. Other players I would throw in this category would be Larry Johnson, Eddie Royal, Terrell Owens, and Dwayne Bowe. If you have better options, I would suggest sitting these guys down until they get healthy or out of their funks. I would treat all of these players as flex options and wouldn't keep them as must starts no matter when I drafted them.

I will post again this week before the games with some projections and thoughts on this week's games. As always post any questions or comments in this section.

 

[FairWarning]

Love Moneyball.

My goal in trading is to always try to get the best player in return, even it it costs me depth. Drafting well and constantly working the waiver wire will achieve this. Depth is less important at the end of the year. Depth will get you through bye-weeks.

 

[gelo24]

Week 5 Inactives are coming out right now. I'm watching Fantasy Football Now on ESPN and really like what I see from the program. They give you a lot of injury information as well as good insight on every game. I also really respect Matthew Berry's opinion and believe that he does a great job on fantasy analysis. Here are the inactives that they have listed so far:

Inactive
Roy Williams DAL
Felix Jones
Kevin Boss
Matthew Stafford
Willie Parker
Troy Polamalu
Joey Galloway
Darren McFadden

Jamal Lewis, Antonio Bryant, Eli Manning, Jonathan Stewart, and Ahmad Bradshaw are all active.

I will also post some quick projections right now.

Ready for Work-Start 'Em
Quarterback
Matt Ryan-With two weeks to prepare and a plethora of weapons to choose from, I expect Ryan to shred the Niners defense throughout the day. Brett Favre had a huge game against the Niners, who have been tough against the run all year. I expect Ryan to have 300 yards and 2 TDs today.

Running Back
Stephen Jackson-I'm not the biggest Rams fan in the world and also think that they are one of the worst teams that I have seen....EVER. However, I expect a big effort out of the Rams at home today against the Vikings who are coming off that huge Monday night game and are obviously on a short week. Look for the Rams to pound Jackson all day and I expect 150 total yards, 5 catches and a TD for S-Jax today.

Wide Receiver
Mohamed Massaquoi-Cleveland has to throw the ball and someone has to catch it. This rookie out of Georgia has become Derek Anderson's favorite target, especially with the trade of Braylon Edwards this week. I also really like Pierre Garcon today so if you have either of them, get them in your lineup.

Give them the day off-Sit 'Em
Quarterback
Tom Brady-Denver has given up a total of ZERO passing TDs this year. When you couple that with the snow and wind in Denver today, I expect this to be a low scoring physical game that does not favor Brady throwing the ball. Give him the day off.

Running Back
Glen Coffee-I try to be very aggressive with my projections and have seen that everyone is in love with Coffee since Frank Gore's injury. I really don't like what Coffee did last week against the Rams and feel that all defenses will be stacking the box against San Fran and forcing Shaun Hill to beat them. I believe the Falcons get up in this game and the Niners are forced to air it out. Look for Coffee to get 20 touches, but only 80 total yards.

Wide Receiver
Randy Moss-If I don't like Tom Brady, I really don't like Moss either. Look at what the Jets and Revis did to Moss a few weeks ago to New England. I think Champ Bailey will shut down Moss again and the snow won't help either.

Good luck to everyone this week with their matchups and I hope you listen to some of my advice this week.

 

[gelo24]

Who could be this week's Miles Austin?

I love checking out a lot of different fantasy articles from various sites throughout the week. All of the people who are paid to write about fantasy sports are telling everyone to pick up Miles Austin and Jeremy Maclin this week. Anyone who has a pulse could tell you to pick them up and they were most likely snatched up in every single league that has 12 teams by Thursday morning. The following players are guys who should be available in your league and are also players that I would be comfortable starting at a flex position if I was in a bind:

Bryant Johnson/Dennis Northcutt Detroit-These two guys could both put up decent numbers if Calvin Johnson doesn't suit up on Sunday and I really don't think he will. The Green Bay defense held Adrian Peterson in check in their last game and will be focused heavily on Kevin Smith if Calvin is out. Each receiver had 8 balls thrown their way last week and I expect that number to be in double digits since the Lions will likely be playing from behind once again. I would lean towards Northcutt as the better option because Culpepper seemed to have a better rhythm with him last week.

Mark Clayton/Michael Clayton-This week could be a strong one for the law firm of Clayton and Clayton. Mark goes up against the Vikings who have been very tough against the run all year as they are the only NFL team that have not given up a rushing TD. Mark was targeted last week by Joe Flacco 7 times while #1 reeceiver Derrick Mason was held without a catch. The second member of our law firm, Michael, had the ball thrown his way 12 times last week by Josh Johnson. While this resulted in only 3 catches, it definitely looks like he has a place in Johnson's heart. I would lean towards Mark as the stronger start this week, but I think Michael could be better over the course of the season.

Keenan Burton-I will sadly admit that I watched a good portion of the Rams-Vikings game last week. If not for 3 turnovers in the red zone and another fumble returned for a TD by Jared Allen, the Rams could have pulled an upset last week. Well maybe not, but still they aren't as bad as I thought they were offensively. They actually moved the ball well between the 20s and have a great matchup this week against a Jaguars defense that was absolutely thrashed by Matt Hasselbeck and co. last week. Since Donnie Avery is probably owned in youe league, I would take a flier on Burton as I expect a nice week out of him as well as an opportunity to succeed throughout the year.

Jamaal Charles-It is extremely difficult to find a running back this time of year in any league, but I think Charles is the best of those available in many leagues. This is somewhat of a play against what is in front of Charles as Larry Johnson has averaged a horrendous 2.4 yards per carry so far. Charles had 5 catches for 54 yards last week and should see more action going forward. I don't expect him to have a monster week as Washington is tough up the middle with Albert Haynesworth in the middle, but if you are in need of someone to play at a RB position in a deeper league, Charles could be your man.

I will post some projections tomorrow and would really suggest to check the weather reports for Sunday as rain and high winds are expected in the Northeast.

 

[gelo24]

This week is very weird because there are a few big games and then the rest look like blowouts on paper. It is time once again for my weekly projections. I also try to be very aggressive with my starts and sits and have been pretty good over the course of the season. I think weather plays a big role this week and should be taken into consideration in a few games so here goes.

Ready for Work-Start 'Em
Quarterback
Marc Bulger-This would be for someone who needs a bye week fill-in. I really like what I saw out of the St. Louis offense last week and the Rams had a nice gameplan against one of the toughest defenses in the league in Minnesota, but continuously shot themselves in the foot with turnovers. The Rams have an improving offense and face a defense that looked lost in Seattle last week and has given up 273 yards per game through the air and 11 TDs this year. I think Bulger has 250 yards and 2 TDs this week.

Running Back
Thomas Jones-I am more of a Leon Washington guy myself, but I know the Jets love Thomas Jones running between the tackles. This is a great matchup for both guys this week and I wouldn't hesitate starting either. The Bills have given up 154 rushing yards per game and 7 TDs and the game will likely be played in heavy rain. I think Jones could go for 100 yards and 2 TDs.

Wide Receiver
Steve Smith(Carolina)-Has it come to the point that this fantasy beast is now the other Steve Smith? The guy who leads all fantasy receivers in points has the same name, but plays for the Giants. Carolina's Smith will have a huge game today against a bad Tampa secondary. Even Jake Delhomme will be able to find him open today. I expect 8 catches 125 yards and a TD today.

Give them the day off-Sit 'Em
Quarterback
Drew Brees-I'm just kidding-He does have a tough matchup, but you have to play him if you got him. The guy that I would sit today is Carson Palmer. The Houston Texans defense is very bad against the run and if you have seen the Bengals play you would know that they have morphed into a rushing team. Cedric Benson would be my #1 fantasy RB overall this week so I expect Palmer to have a very pedestrian day this week with 200 yards passing and 1 TD.

Running Back
Julius Jones-I have never seen Jones as being a fantasy stud, but someone offered him to me for Brandon Jacobs. Unless Jacobs pulls a Plaxico on himself in a club, I know he will break out of his slump eventually. Seattle will be looking to air it out against Arizona which is dead last against the pass this year. I figure Jones will have 15 touches for 60 yards and no scores.

Wide Receiver
Terrell Owens-I really hope no teams are still starting him, but I know some people are. If there was a pool to bet on which week TO will blow up, I have a feeling that I would go all-in on this week. The Bills will not win today and their offensive line is an absolute mess. Rex Ryan will be licking his chops to release his animals after Trent Edwards and he is one quarterback who will earn his paycheck today. When you add in the fact that my boy Darrelle Revis will be matched up with TO all day, I really don't like his chances. I would say 3 catches for 40 yards, but would not be shocked if he was shut out today.

Best of luck to everyone this week and I hope you all enjoy Week 6.